Why I Think Reform UK Could Win the Next Election

I note that a recent poll shows Reform UK as the most popular party on 28% with Labour and the Tories behind them, both on 20% and I find it both incredibly worrying and also consistent with the trends that have been in politics for a while. Now, to say that I dislike REFUK would be a massive understatement. They are racist, they want to privatise the NHS, they are a party whose policies benefit the rich , they offer no real solutions to the problems the country is facing and of course they are an evolution of UKIP, the party that gave us the Brexit.

However, despite my own low opinion of Reform, it's my belief that they'll continue to make progress and gather strength to the extent that they could win the next election. There's one simple reason for this: They are dominating the narrative.

What do you mean "The Narrative"?

Have you ever thought about the political news? Have you thought about why certain stories come up and get discussed, and why some subjects seem to dominate discussion while others tend to get forgotten. To a large extent, "political" news is not random, the stories that are chosen are placed there by people with their own agendas. For example, if a government minister wants to cut a particular benefit it's likely they will plan a campaign to do so. They will arrange a news grid with a few scare stories about that benefit, stories about abuse, fraud or possibly the cost of said benefit. The idea of this is to soften up public opposition, stories will drop at regular intervals with the hope that when the final cut is announced it is viewed in a positive (or at least, less negative) light. The idea is to turn "Minister cruelly cuts benefit" into "Minister takes tough but necessary action on benefit" or possibly "Minister takes firm action on abuse and fraud", to create a positive "spin" on the decision. A lot of what you see in the political news is exactly this: Various political agendas competing to weave together a compelling story

When it comes to Reform, their narrative is quite easy to understand, in a nutshell: The country is going to pot and it's all the fault of scroungers/immigrants/trans people/woke

As narratives go, it doesn't offer very much in the way of solutions, but it does tap into a feeling that things are not going well, it offers a sympathy to those who feel like they've been left behind and it offers clear targets for people's anger. For people who want an outlet for that anger. In many ways it has a similar feel to a scam, exploiting peoples insecurities and offering up the Reform vote as the magic bullet.

So Why are they Winning?

So, why do I think a political movement that I personally view as a scam is going to win? Two reasons come to mind:

The first is that Reform has a good chunk of the press on it's side. Reform's narrative is the same one that we see in the Sun and the Daily Mail, Reform can in many ways be described as the political wing of the Daily Mail.

The second is that Reform's narrative is not facing any serious opposition, about the only large political entity challenging Reform's narrative is the Green party and they're really just a minor player at this point. The two major political players: Labour and the Tories accept the basic thrust of Reform's narrative. As an example, consider the following announcements from Labour and the Tories on the subject of immigration.

• For the Tories Kemi Badenoch announced a plan to tighten immigration rules by restricting applications for Indefinite Leave to Remain
• For Labour, Yvetter Cooper boasted of smashing targets with mass surge in migrant removals

Both these announcements accept the "too much immigration" premise that Reformare arguing, they don't challenege Reform's arguments they strengthen them.

So How do we stop the Rise of Reform UK?

To me, the clear strategy to stop them would be do try and create a counternarrative that opposes what they're saying, tackle their claims head on. Instead of briefing stories about how immigration is bad, start briefing stories about families torn apart by immigration rules or stories about how the fall in foreign students will lead to job losses at universities. You could start pulling at what Reform'spolicies actually are and demand to know how their policies will make life for people any better. You could link Reform more heavily to Brexit, by briefing negative stories related to Brexit.

There is, in my view, a clear strategy to stop Reform, but I don't think any of the major two parties will go near such a strategy, it's just not in their nature. The Tories to a large extent already share the Reform view on things and aren't going to oppose it. As for Labour, they still seem wedded to a Reform-lite narrative, changing the narrative would be incredibly difficult. Further to this, I think many around Keir Starmer hold a Reform style worldview and wouldn't want to change the narrative.

It's bleak, but ultimately I think Reform UK are going to go from strength to strength.